The Anglo-Saxon vanguards of the established global order, whose hegemony has been eroded, continue to seek ways to balance the system. The urgency emphasized at global summits such as NATO and the G7 has spiralled into a panic.

US President Biden’s demand for allies has not been sufficiently fortified. Thus, the alliance model in question seems to be concentrated based on a more hawkish team. In this context, the recent presentation of a security alliance called AUKUS (Australia, UK, United States) by the USA, Australia and the UK as a piece of splendid news has created a bombshell effect in global politics.

The key component of the alliance is that Washington and London will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

China and France reacted excessively to the agreement.

While France is losing its consciousness because of the scrapping of the deal with Australia (12) involving the construction of submarines (worth 37 billion Euros), China interprets this change, which may threaten the survival of the Asia-Pacific, as one step closer to the Cold War.

France recalled its ambassadors in the US and Australia. In addition, he is busy looking for diplomatic ways to put the United States and Britain in their place.

Biden’s new strategy and the “allied” problem

The United States and its partners are determined to garrison the Asia-Pacific in a last-ditch effort to defend the established global order. It looks like there will be no Europe in this effort. At this point, it is a matter of concern what kind of strategy Europe will determine against this situation.

We know that the USA has shifted its geopolitical and strategic weight from the Middle East to Asia since the Obama era. With the Biden era, this situation accelerated. The US, which left Afghanistan quickly, seems to be busy with some cost adjustments in its new strategy towards Asia (should we say China?).

The cost issue in question reveals the necessity of working with allies.

For this reason, the USA, which worked intensively at summits such as NATO, G7, QUAD, could not find what it was looking for from these structures and turned to a narrower and more proactive alliance called AUKUS.

It should also be reminded that the UK has committed to a more “global Britain” with the Indo-Pacific strategy it published this year. Australia, on the other hand, has followed an approach that tries to avoid great power competition in the region from past to present.

However, Australia, which believes that the security environment of the region has been changed by China, seems to have turned to a more “securitized” behaviour.

The US, with the AUKUS agreement, positions its arbitration against China in a sharper context.

Thus, Australia will be the centre of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

India’s close contact with Russia and its dilemma to confront China has put the United States on a more hawkish team.

Even so, I can’t help but mention this. QUAD’s integration with AUKUS may come to the fore in the coming days. India and Japan approach AUKUS positively. The summit in Washington on September 24 will determine the relationship between AUKUS and QUAD.

France and the future of NATO

Although Biden’s “nuclear” insistence on Australia and his approach that pushes Europe to the alone, caused France to lose its consciousness momentarily, it is unclear how Europe will react to this move.

But an intense discomfort has certainly accumulated. At this point, France may take some steps concerning NATO, which it claims is “brain dead”.

It would not be surprising if France, which thinks it has been stabbed in the back, takes such steps.

As the French Ambassador to Israel said, these steps may lead France, which faces the new reality of world competition, to a more Gaullist stance.

Rather than being a low-intensity ally in the U.S.'s competition with China, a multipolar system where each state minds its own business may become a reasonable target for France.

Meanwhile, the treatment of France has also caused discomfort in the EU. The EU dignitaries particularly occupy with highlighting the EU’s need for a more assertive foreign policy. This also includes the dream of an autonomous European Army, possibly a NATO alternative.

This new alliance against China, strengthened within the framework of the USA, Australia and the UK, puts into effect a cold warlike logic of “blocs” in the Asia-Pacific and alienates Europe and France in the most key region of the century.

This situation may lead Europe to a third path, as well as cause it to side with systemic actors such as China and Russia.

In the interim, we should remember that it based the foreign policy of France from past to present on Anglo-Saxon opposition.

China’s anger and the unstable security landscape in Asia

One of the biggest reactions to the AUKUS agreement came from China. Spokesman Zhao Lijian said in a statement that China found the deal “extremely irresponsible” and that it stemmed from a “zero-sum Cold War mentality”. He also called for the abandonment of narrow-minded geopolitical concepts.

The day after, China applied to join the Transpacific Trade Agreement (TPP). Although Beijing announced that it did not relate its decision to AUKUS, its participation in such an economic structure designed against China during the Obama era was interpreted as a countermove. Let’s also note that the USA withdraws from the TPP during the Trump era.

On the other hand, Australia’s approach towards China is getting tougher day by day. At the end of last year, economic relations deteriorated as Australia pointed to China in the investigation of the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.

Now, it is obvious that Australia’s participation in such a security alliance will increase Beijing’s concern about Australia.

To China, the US is using the same approach is used in the Cold War to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing; He thinks that a NATO-like alliance has been formed, in which with AUKUS and the United States at its centre.

China interprets AUKUS, which it interprets as a threat to the survival of the Asia-Pacific, as a NATO-like Cold War practice. In this context, it can get closer to Russia and try to deepen the influence of the SCO.

In contrast, China; Can Russia turn to a flexible alliance of Iran and Pakistan?

We know that China has taken a non-alliance approach in its relations with other states since the 1980s. However, the tense international environment and the ongoing fierce rivalry with the United States may cause China to flex its approach. In this context, it can be expected that China and the countries in its close line will fortify a narrow structure in the form of IPARUCH (Iran, Pakistan, RUssia, CHina).

Already, the countries concerned are conducting naval exercises.

They will hold a more extensive exercise next year.

Even if these countries, which are already synchronized within the SCO, do not talk about a formal alliance, they may open the door to an AUKUS-like rapprochement.

This could spur an arms race in the Asia-Pacific. Operating nuclear-powered submarines could lead to some efforts to enrich uranium. Therefore, it is possible to expect a serious securitization of the region.

As a result, the world is no longer the old world.

The United States is to homogenize the allies it has fortified against China on a narrower level.

It seems that this effort will do nothing but deepen relations between China and Russia and harm Australia. China remains Australia’s largest trading partner in the long run, despite tensions that have led to trade barriers in recent years. Over 30 per cent of Australian exports go to China.

Washington doesn’t have much to gain by excluding actors like France from the Indo-Pacific, but by this means, China has a lot to gain in the region in the long term.