Hybrid Character of The New Cold War: Ukraine and Taiwan

As uncertainties grow, the international system is settling into a new normal in which fault lines become notable. The Ukraine issue, which Russia has

 

As uncertainties grow, the international system is settling into a new normal in which fault lines become notable. The Ukraine issue, which Russia has framed by opposing NATO enlargement, is on its way to becoming a hybrid front in the "new cold war."

It is hybrid because, although there is no hot conflict at the moment, the messages from the relevant actors indicate that one could erupt at any time.

The United States' statements that "Russia could invade Ukraine at any time," as well as Russia's massing of 100,000 troops along the border, indicate that an intense "information warfare" is being waged.

A recent piece of news stated that the Russians were sending blood units to the border. What is meant here is that the war is imminent. This news seems to be part of the information war. In the context of Taiwan, it is critical to answering the questions of whether Russia will invade Ukraine and what such a move would mean for China.

Russia, absolutely wants NATO expansion to halt, and it does not want Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. He also demands that this be communicated to him in the form of a written commitment.

There is also diplomatic correspondence with the United States, but the contents of the correspondence are unclear.

According to Russian statements, it is difficult to say that the Russian side is satisfied.

In a somewhat perplexing statement, Biden stated that neither the US nor NATO forces planned to deploy to Ukraine. He also stated that if Russia moves, Putin will face consequences.

The US policy toward Ukraine is in shambles.

He is unable to keep up with his European counterparts, and Russia is well aware of this. Germany's approach, in particular, is on a scale that could call NATO's alliance structure into question.

Russia has tactical superiority at this time. If Russia makes a move, the US and its allies appear unlikely to be able to respond in a coordinated response. On the other hand, this situation creates a great deal of uncertainty.

It is possible to predict that Russia will continue to put the United States and its allies to the test. While this argument does not rule out the possibility of a conflict, it sees the Ukraine crisis as an example of a multifaceted hybrid conflict.

Russia's stance on the Ukraine issue suggests that China may take a similar stance on Taiwan.

China is unequivocal on this point. He has long stated that Taiwan will unify with the mainland and that all options, including military ones, are on the table.

The key question here is when this merger will take place and whether it will take place peacefully. While China understandably wishes to unite with Taiwan based on "one country, two systems," Taiwanese political elites pursue an unclear path to independence.

There is broad consensus that the issues in Ukraine and Taiwan issues are very similar. It's only a matter of time before he falls victim to a "reductionist" viewpoint, though he admits that there are some parallels.

The main argument of those who reached a consensus is that failing to respond to military action against Ukraine will erode America's credibility, prompting China to attack Taiwan.

It may appear logical to draw analogies about the Taiwan issue by capitalizing on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and claiming that China could intervene but these analogies require more refined mental effort and proof.

At this point, the continuation of the status quo is the best option for all actors involved. This is supported by findings and strategic approaches. There may be evidence to the contrary, but it must be tested before used an argument.

China has the military capability to invade Taiwan. This may appear to be a simple task, but the reaction of the United States and its allies, as well as the subsequent blockade that China will face in every field, will cost China dearly. China will wait for the best opportunity for such a venture.

The United States has a different plan for Taiwan. It makes some commitments to Taiwan, for example, through legislation such as the Taiwan Relations Act. It operates under the principle of strategic uncertainty, but this does not preclude it from acting.

Given that the US military presence in the Indo-Pacific region accounts for more than 60% of the total, predicting what the US will do about Taiwan may be difficult. The United States may try to put China in a difficult position by opting for a total blockade rather than a military move

It would be "hegemonic suicide" for the US to give a joint response to crises that may arise concurrently in Ukraine and Taiwan and fight on both fronts.

As a result, he is more likely to take a different approach to crises. His concern about acting in concert with his allies is always front and centre.

In a conclusion, a hybrid conflict that envisions maintaining the status quo rather than a hot conflict on both fronts will intensify. The US will not embark on an adventure without first securing and fortifying its allies and China and Russia will postpone large-scale military options until they can form a more coordinated partnership.

"History," as Weber puts it, "is the relationship between values." During the current period, the value system established and reinforced by the cold war over the years is being questioned and transformed. The confusion within NATO, as well as the intensifying relations between China and Russia, demonstrate that history has once again changed course.

It is a mystery how the United States, as a power whose hegemony is eroding, will respond to such a shift. Time will tell whether he will make decisions such as Xerxes' order for the sea to be lashed as punishment or if he will make more rational moves.

Dr.Hüseyin Korkmaz. The author is a researcher focusing on China and geopolitics in the Asia, primarily related to the US-China relations.

@drhkorkmaz