The competition between the United States
and China is intensifying, following recent events. While US President Biden's
tour to Asia and recent remarks regarding Taiwan soured relations, Foreign
Minister Blinken's outline of China's strategy
ushered the rivalry into a new phase.
Blinken's remarks at George Washington
University could be interpreted as acknowledging the United States' hegemonic global competition with China
in the twenty-first century.
Actually, for a long time, China has
always been viewed as a threat in US official discourse. Since 2018, China has
been portrayed as a revisionist power
and a superpower that challenges the current international order in strategic
documents on national security.
This rhetoric, which got more abrasive
throughout Trump's presidency, was carried on by Biden as well.
Biden went so far as to say that the
United States' conflict with China is the most critical geopolitical test of
the twenty-first century.
The concept of China as a threat, which is
obvious among Republicans in the United States, has lately expanded among
Democrats, and the claim that China is a global rival has begun to be
acknowledged at the country level.
In such a situation, Blinken's statement
might be seen as a doctrinal endeavour to establish "strategic clarity." Following allegations of "strategic confusion" as a
result of Biden's remarks on Taiwan, the US is attempting to adjust its
geopolitical approach to the area.
Blinken's speech focuses on China's
strategy, with the themes "invest, align
and compete."
The United States is primarily interested
in establishing an economic foundation for competing with China. The
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework was also introduced as part of this. Besides, at
the ASEAN conference in Washington last week, a $150 million investment was pledged to the area.
These initiatives make up the "invest" portion of China's
strategy. It's uncertain if these efforts to undermine the Belt and Road
Initiative's impact in the region will be successful.
The United States seeks a smooth alignment
with its regional partners and allies in order to provide a counterbalance to
China's investment. Boutique security organisations such as QUAD and AUKUS have already been mobilised to help pave the way. These
structures are now expected to launch a coordinated containment.
It is believed that by organising the
strategy's economic and political foundations, a more suitable level of
competitiveness can be attained.
As a result, a three-pronged strategic
competition model, namely economic, political, and military, has been
established.
It is possible to define Blinken's speech
as the 'Biden doctrine'. Like the
Truman doctrine, the conception is predicated on the idea that the United
States is under threat by China.
While China is seen as the most serious
long-term danger, the speech emphasises that a "new cold war" is not intended. It's worth noting that
Blinken alludes to the rules-based system that emerged following the two World
Wars.
Besides, he says, however, emphasise the
importance of coordinated action by a shared network of allies against China,
adding, "We cannot maintain this
system alone."
According to Blinken, "China is the only country with both the intention and the
economic, diplomatic, military, and technical power to remake the world
order."
Blinken claims that China is attempting to
dominate future technology, but concedes that the United States is lagging
behind. Henry Kissinger is similarly adamant that the technology condition is
critical in global rivalry.
Blinken also cited China and Russia's "boundless" relationship, as
well as the combined patrol of Chinese and Russian nuclear bombardment warplanes
during Biden's visit to Japan, in his address.
"We are ready to expand our direct contact with Beijing. We sincerely
hope that this will be possible. We cannot, however, rely on Beijing to alter
its course." The question of "state intentions'
ambiguity" is raised by Blinken's statements.
Based on these comments, we may conclude
that the Biden administration favours offensive realism.
When Blinken declares, "We will alter the strategic
environment around Beijing," he also confesses that his aims to avoid
a new cold war are ambiguous.
Blinken stated that they could not trust
Beijing and that they would build the strategic environment around them, but
they are not seeking for a new cold war.
Furthermore, Blinken stated in another
section of his address, "We will
protect our interests. "We have the strongest army in the world,"
he declares.
When Blinken argues, "...we don't compel countries to make decisions, we provide them
options," he puts the region's states in a difficult position.
"We are changing our military spending from weapons meant for
20th-century battles to longer-range, easier-to-carry asymmetric systems," Blinken said in announcing the transition to "integrated deterrence."
Taiwan comes to mind when Blinken states, "We will help our friends and partners
strengthen their asymmetrical capabilities."
Although Blinken's speech has various
inconsistencies, he briefly asserts that China is the USA's worldwide
competitor and that the US would endeavour to prevent China from succeeding. As
an approach, it suggests increasing asymmetrical capacity rather than
traditional capabilities.
Despite his objections, this rhetoric
implies that the United States is prepared for a new cold war with China. It
should be emphasized, however, that we are in the midst of a ‘hybrid cold war’ due to its asymmetrical characteristics.
These systemic attitudes, known as the
Biden doctrine, are not unique to the Trump period. As a result, we can see the
theory in question as a state discourse.
In contrast to the Trump era, it is feasible
to argue that Biden can better unite regional allies and provide institutional
depth to the competition.
Despite Blinken's assertion that they have
placed diplomacy at the forefront of US foreign policy, engagement in the area
is not at the intended level. This constraint will also raise concerns about
the strategy's functionality.
Furthermore, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and ASEAN summits are insufficient to mobilise regional partners and
allies. More efforts are required to avert unwelcome catastrophes by investing
in essential infrastructure and forming alliances to promote supply chain
security.
In this regard, the Biden administration is competitive but less
aggressive.
These systemic principles, known as the
Biden doctrine, are likewise akin to the Truman doctrine. The Truman doctrine
was a groundbreaking collection of concepts that declared the division of the
world into two blocs and the start of the Soviet-American conflict.
Today's political situation may not be
comparable. Examples can also differ.
However, the fact is that the United
States and China are swiftly approaching a chaotic and asymmetrical era in
which cold war tendencies coexist with strong competitiveness.
Dr.Hüseyin Korkmaz. The author is a researcher focusing on China and geopolitics in the Asia, primarily related to the US-China relations.
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