The international system has recently been in a state
of uncertain and dangerous turbulence. This is reflected in the statements of
leaders. In his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, Russian President Putin
said, "an uncertain and dangerous
decade awaits us," while US President Biden emphasized, "a decade that will determine
everything."
The system cannot overcome the "organic crisis" it has entered. This can be referred to
as "an interregnum without
hegemony" or, as previously said, "a dangerous decade."
But one thing is sure: the international system is at
a historic turning point. Amid all this turmoil, Chinese President Xi Jinping's
October congress speech warning against "dangerous
storms" stood out.
In his speech at the opening of the 20th Party
Congress, Xi Jinping emphasized the need for "self-confidence" in technology by warning that China is
facing challenges from overseas countries and "dangerous storms."
Xi Jinping uses the metaphor of "dangerous
storms" in many of speeches.
This statement appears to have been influenced by the
United States National Security Strategy, which recently designated China as a "big threat" and a long-term challenge.
Xi Jinping mentioned about pressure on China on the
world scene in his party congress speech. Although not expressly addressed in
the speech, this issue was highlighted in the congress report.
Xi's consolidation of the party and state leadership
structures and his stress on ideological purity might be interpreted as a
foreshadowing of this uncertain future.
Recent developments on the Taiwan problem and the
pressure and encirclement China is facing on the world scene indicate that
China is shifting toward a more solid and long-term policy that eliminates
uncertainty.
Collective leadership, founded on a constitutional
basis following Mao's excessive centralization of power, was successfully
enforced until the Hu Jintao era. However, Xi Jinping's elimination of term
limits in 2018 produced an open-ended predicament.
There are several explanations for this tendency inside the CCP. The growing conflict with the United States has consolidated control among the Chinese leadership. Furthermore, China is closely monitoring the demise of the USSR, and the party is sensitive to any signals of weakness.
To put it another way, Xi is attempting to avoid the
destiny of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev. The Chinese leadership regards the
closing decades of the USSR as a lesson.
Xi Jinping acknowledged the tensions inside China's
political institutions in his speech at the congress, claiming that the
government had "eliminated severe
concealed risks within the party." This demonstrates the Chinese
leadership's sensitivity to indicators of weakness. The term "security" was used the most
in Xi's address.
Of course, there is an emphasis on the regime's
security, not merely the upheaval generated by rivalry with the US. Taiwan,
China's most acute and constant national security problem, was also mentioned
in the address. "Solving the Taiwan
problem is in the hands of the Chinese people," Xi Jinping stated,
adding, "China would never give up
its right to use force, but will strive for a peaceful settlement."
Xi has already made explicit declarations before concerning
Taiwan. "We must not allow this
issue to be carried on from generation to generation," he remarked in
2019. Also to be remembered is the fact that China released a white paper on
Taiwan in 2022.
The white paper concludes, "The historical aim of reuniting our nation must accomplish and
will be accomplished." The solution of "one country, two systems" is also suggested in this
white paper.
Xi Jinping's congressional address was significant,
and compared to previous speeches, it clearly switched to a
"security" focused plane. This suggests that in the future, China's
focus will be on how to accomplish development and progress in a
"secure" environment.
Xi Jinping now has complete and adequate authority
over the state, party, and army.
The released congress report also demonstrates a solid
commitment to modernizing the People's Liberation Army. This modernization has
four main components: "the
objective of a world-class army, the growth of theoretical military literature,
the development of unmanned/intelligent combat capabilities, and the
development of combat power."
According to the report, China would "build a robust strategic deterrence
system." This is a strong indicator that China will beef up its
nuclear arsenal.
On the other side, the study offers some intriguing
remarks about Taiwan. The report of the 19th Party Congress did not include a
declaration that China rejects "foreign
involvement" in Taiwan-related topics. This new and special statement
is included in this Congressional report.
Furthermore, the report's comment about Taiwan, "the strategic initiative for China's
reunification will be intensified," implies that specific strategic
calculations would be made and modeling would be done appropriately.
In conclusion, the Chinese leadership believes they
face a complex, tumultuous and uncertain international system and must show
strategic determination to adapt to it.
During this adaptation, China will likely turn to
measures that reinforce national security in response to the uncertain nature
of international security and adopt a more proactive approach to Taiwan.
Recent statements by Xi Jinping also indicate this. Xi
Jinping's statement that China will comprehensively strengthen its preparations
for war in response to the increasing instability and uncertainty of China's
security is significant.
The concept of "security"
is now starting to take precedence over development and growth for China. The
acceptance of all leaders that they have entered a dangerous and uncertain
period, the deepening competition with the US, and the emergence of an
imbalanced "multi-polarity" are
causing China to take a more urgent approach to ensure its security.
The era of China being primarily focused on economic development and growth has come to an end. In this uncertain time, security and preparation for potential war have become the new priorities.
Dr.Hüseyin Korkmaz. The author is a researcher focusing on China and geopolitics in the Asia, primarily related to the US-China relations.
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