
The international system is undergoing a rapid transformation with intense uncertainty and signs of fragmentation. This transformation is having a significant impact on regional crisis points.
China's growing influence in the Middle East, which is
pursuing a global "security breakthrough" (Global Security
Initiative) in the context of deepening rivalry with the United States, has
important implications for regional security.
In this regard, the consensus between Iran and Saudi
Arabia, two regional powers with a long history of tension and crisis in the
Middle East, facilitated by Beijing, indicates China's growing influence.
Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia
have been wholly severed for (7) years.
Following the execution of (47) people in Saudi Arabia
on terrorism charges in 2016, including Shiite cleric Nimr Bakr al-Nimr, Iran
reacted strongly. It was set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and the
consulate buildings in Mashhad.
Following these events, diplomatic relations between
the two countries were severed entirely.
The ongoing regional struggle over the Yemen war and
the drone attacks on the Saudi-owned ARAMCO caused tensions to escalate.
It is a fact that the sectarian differences between
the two countries have created sectarian geopolitics in the region.
Against this backdrop, Iran and Saudi Arabia met in
Beijing last week and agreed to revive relations and reopen their embassies as
part of a Chinese-brokered deal.
The conclusion of the deal was remarkable because the delegations of the two countries have previously met in Baghdad and Muscat, Oman, on several occasions. It has been widely reported that intense diplomatic negotiations have been underway for some time.
Even the resumption of Iranian
diplomats' duties at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah in
2022 was seen as a gesture of goodwill to improve relations.
Beijing-led agreement caused a stir
in diplomatic circles and the media.
China's top diplomat Wang Yi declared the Iran-Saudi
Arabia talks a victory for dialogue and peace.
Hu Xijin, the former editor of the Global Times, even
declared that such a major diplomatic breakthrough was comparable to the 1978
Camp David and 1993 Oslo Accords.
China has been engaged in diplomatic traffic among the
countries of the region for a long time.
After President Xi Jinping's "groundbreaking
visit" to Saudi Arabia at the end of last year, Iran was disturbed and
vocal about it. Iranian President Reisi's visit to Beijing last month aimed to
renew and stabilize relations with China.
This diplomatic activity in a short span of time has
resulted in a balancing attempt on the Chinese side. While Iran is trying to
consolidate its regional hegemony, it is undergoing a process in which it is
facing economic crisis and social unrest at home and is being exhausted over
the Syria and Yemen issue abroad.
Iran has been striving to increase its leverage for a
long time. Given that Iran has not yielded on the nuclear issue and faces
severe pressure from the US and Israel, it is understandable that Iran is
leaning towards China and Russia.
President Reisi's signing of a decree on Iran's
accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) before his visit to
China is one of the key indicators of his efforts to increase his leverage.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has been pursuing a significant and balanced position in the global arena in light of the harm caused by the war in Yemen and its hedging as a survival strategy. The US inaction in response to the Houthi attacks on its oil facilities has cast doubt on the security guarantees provided by the US for years.
China has signaled a more proactive global approach with its recently announced Global Security Initiative. The peace plan on Ukraine and the Iran-Saudi deal that followed were the concrete results of this initiative.
The Chinese side emphasized that the agreement
"sets a good example of how countries in the region can resolve disputes
through dialogue and consultation."
Iran also said that the agreement with Saudi Arabia
would help end the war in Yemen, confirming that the consensus will lead to
concrete results.
It is well known that China needs to engage more in
political and security issues in its Middle East policy. But with today's
mediation, we see that this period is ending, and China will be more proactive
in the region.
As China expands its economic, political, and military
footprint in the Middle East, it becomes an increasingly important player in
the region's geopolitics.
China's growing role in the region has created new
opportunities for Iran and Saudi Arabia to engage with each other. In recent
years, China has tried to maintain stability and avoid taking sides in disputes
by balancing its relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia.
With this agreement, the situation has entered a more
dynamic process. It is uncertain whether this cohesion of the three countries,
which is perceived against the established global order, will create a solid
position. The effects of this agreement, which has created a highly influential
and spectacular diplomatic wind, seem to last for a long time.
Time will tell whether it is a short-term truce or a
long-term peace between two regional rivals. For China to stand behind this
deal will require significant security commitments.
The question remains whether China possesses the
capability to demonstrate its will.
The Global Security Initiative posits that China can
do so, at least on a rhetorical level. However, the contrast between China’s
rhetorical presence in the region and the United States’ military influence
raises concerns.
For instance, Iran has not relented on the nuclear
issue, which continues to be a critical point of contention. The United States’
stance towards the deal remains uncertain, but it is undoubtedly a source of
discomfort.
Additionally, the impact of China’s undertaking of
this challenge on the highly stratified security environment in the Middle East
requires further clarification. Israel’s attempts to establish a regional coalition
against Iran have been significantly impeded, and the waning of United States’
influence in the region has become apparent.
In short, China seeks to take on a more proactive role
in the Middle East's security architecture with this agreement. As the battle
for global dominance intensifies, this trend is gaining traction, and China may
soon become more actively engaged in security matters.
The Middle East, a geopolitical battleground, is
likely to remain a significant front in the competition between the United
States and China.
Note: This article was published in Turkish on my blog on March 14, 2023.
Dr.Hüseyin Korkmaz. The author is a researcher focusing on China and geopolitics in the Asia, primarily related to the US-China relations.
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